1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	252315	The Everrain	Current	62	6.95	5.50	3.50
			Estimated	500	8.11	6.07	3.51

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
"The world is drowning. When The Everrain began, no alarms were rung; no calls to action were cried. But as the weeks became months, and the months flowed into years, it became apparent that the rain would not stop. It’s been 5 years now, and the rain has not ceased for a minute in that time. Lands and places have begun to disappear beneath the waves, and before long the rising tides will take us all. We must do something, or a watery grave will be the fate of everything to grace the land. At first we knew not of the cause of The Everrain, but it has since become painfully apparent that the Old Gods of the ocean have awoken, and they are angry. For too long the people and creatures of the earth have prospered, and the Old Gods have arisen to usher in a new age of the Sea. We must do something, before all is lost to the rising tides. Assemble your crew, brave hero, and find a way to grant the Gods peace and return them to their slumber. Stop The Everrain… or drown in the flood of the new world." The Everrain is a cooperative exploration game where players must each assemble their own motley crew of spirited mariners and take to the dark seas of a world drowning under the curtain of an endless and oppressive storm that threatens to drown the world. The ancient Old Ones of the sea have awoken and begun to reshape the world in their image, and unless something is done all will drown in the rising tides. Players must explore this dark and foreboding world, completing quests, expanding their crew, upgrading their ship and investigating the source of the Everrain before it is too late. Starting from humble beginnings, each player must traverse the seas of the Everrain to discover new places. The board is randomly generated from modular tiles, leading to a completely unique setup each time the game is played. Each player begins with their own ship and a skeleton crew, but more experienced crew can be found in the darkly lit taverns of port towns, saved from shipwrecks and even be rewarded for completing quests. The game is progressed by completing quests which can trigger important plot points, but players must be wary as the Old God’s minions also seek to advance their own agendas. Combat can take place from ship to ship and even aboard a player’s vessel, so each crew member must be ready for almost anything! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/252315

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Everrain? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Everrain. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Everrain. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	252315	The Everrain	1.00	5.50	6.95	3.51	62
1	2017	159504	Folklore: The Affliction	0.95	6.47	7.78	3.67	1,765
2	2020	322985	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death (Revised Edition)	0.93	5.61	8.74	4.00	68
3	2014	150997	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death	0.93	6.83	8.04	3.39	2,302
4	2020	322984	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition)	0.93	5.60	8.73		73
5	2017	173805	Lobotomy	0.93	5.87	7.24	3.44	626
6	2019	299121	Machina Arcana (Second/Third Edition)	0.93	6.13	8.11	3.60	658
7	2018	250396	Terminator Genisys: Rise of the Resistance	0.92	5.97	8.16	2.59	445
8	2019	248949	Skull Tales: Full Sail!	0.91	6.05	7.80	3.88	798
9	2015	150484	Secrets of the Lost Tomb	0.91	5.82	7.32	3.22	515
10	2018	203759	The Walking Dead: No Sanctuary	0.90	5.72	6.81	3.00	381
11	2017	232918	Fallout	0.90	6.50	6.94	2.99	6,374
12	2014	146791	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients	0.90	6.98	7.96	3.35	3,629
13	2016	152172	Nova Aetas	0.90	5.61	7.32	3.50	147
14	2019	175973	The Hunters A.D. 2114	0.90	5.85	8.50	3.41	335
15	2015	166776	Skull Tales	0.89	5.71	7.78	3.33	254
16	2017	217012	Alchemical Crystal Quest (Second Edition)	0.89	5.54	6.61	3.33	116
17	2019	169427	Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1	0.89	6.96	8.80	4.02	1,868
18	2019	230424	Crisis at Steamfall	0.89	5.58	6.44	3.86	169
19	1995	1634	Warhammer Quest	0.89	6.55	7.49	2.69	2,449
20	2018	264198	Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress	0.89	6.34	7.92	2.90	1,187
21	2018	154910	Darklight: Memento Mori	0.88	5.92	8.33	3.56	522
22	2019	261393	Dungeon Universalis	0.88	6.03	8.84	4.23	612
23	2018	204286	Big Trouble in Little China: The Game	0.88	6.09	7.66	2.93	793
24	2013	108665	Zpocalypse	0.88	5.63	6.09	3.37	624
25	2017	187777	Endure the Stars	0.87	5.60	6.56	2.25	262

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Everrain while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	252315	The Everrain	5.50	1.00	5.50	6.95	3.51	62
1	2015	55690	Kingdom Death: Monster	6.56	0.85	7.72	8.58	4.26	8,359
2	2016	205059	Mansions of Madness: Second Edition	6.42	0.83	7.77	8.01	2.67	29,837
3	2014	150997	Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death	6.34	0.93	6.83	8.04	3.39	2,302
4	2014	146791	Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients	6.29	0.90	6.98	7.96	3.35	3,629
5	2016	209010	Mechs vs. Minions	6.24	0.81	7.71	8.01	2.43	15,535
6	2019	169427	Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1	6.20	0.89	6.96	8.80	4.02	1,868
7	2015	176189	Zombicide: Black Plague	6.18	0.85	7.29	7.66	2.50	14,109
8	2017	159504	Folklore: The Affliction	6.16	0.95	6.47	7.78	3.67	1,765
9	2017	170771	Sword & Sorcery	6.13	0.87	7.07	7.97	4.07	4,242
10	2019	253344	Cthulhu: Death May Die	6.06	0.81	7.48	8.14	2.40	6,585
11	2017	232918	Fallout	5.86	0.90	6.50	6.94	2.99	6,374
12	1995	1634	Warhammer Quest	5.82	0.89	6.55	7.49	2.69	2,449
13	2018	257499	Arkham Horror (Third Edition)	5.75	0.81	7.14	7.75	3.33	6,839
14	2018	240196	Betrayal Legacy	5.74	0.83	6.96	7.74	2.86	3,978
15	2018	207243	The City of Kings	5.72	0.86	6.64	7.65	3.18	2,295
16	2020	280794	Etherfields	5.69	0.86	6.63	8.04	3.45	1,960
17	2019	299121	Machina Arcana (Second/Third Edition)	5.68	0.93	6.13	8.11	3.60	658
18	2017	197070	Massive Darkness	5.67	0.86	6.56	7.19	2.54	4,389
19	2011	83330	Mansions of Madness	5.66	0.81	6.98	7.28	3.24	13,161
20	2011	91872	Dungeons & Dragons: The Legend of Drizzt Board Game	5.66	0.84	6.73	7.23	2.58	5,939
21	2013	137988	Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak	5.65	0.84	6.76	7.38	2.68	4,472
22	2018	264198	Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress	5.63	0.89	6.34	7.92	2.90	1,187
23	2011	66356	Dungeons & Dragons: Wrath of Ashardalon Board Game	5.60	0.84	6.66	7.12	2.61	6,184
24	2010	59946	Dungeons & Dragons: Castle Ravenloft Board Game	5.58	0.84	6.65	6.98	2.51	8,791
25	2018	202077	Deep Madness	5.56	0.87	6.41	7.89	3.39	1,686

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	252315	The Everrain	Grimlord Games	Adam Smith (I)	Aleksandra Bilic	Exploration	Theme: Cthulhu Mythos	Action Points
					Björn Hurri	Fantasy	Components: Dice with Icons	Cooperative Game
					Sebastian Kowoll	Miniatures	Components: Polyhedral (not D6) dice	Dice Rolling
					Thomas Lishman	Nautical	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Grid Movement
					Henning Ludvigsen	Pirates	Players: Games with Solitaire Rules	Modular Board
								Storytelling
								Tile Placement
								Variable Player Powers

Individual Game Analysis