This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2022 | Current | 62 | 6.95 | 5.50 | 3.50 | ||
Estimated | 500 | 8.11 | 6.07 | 3.51 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
"The world is drowning. When The Everrain began, no alarms were rung; no calls to action were cried. But as the weeks became months, and the months flowed into years, it became apparent that the rain would not stop. It’s been 5 years now, and the rain has not ceased for a minute in that time. Lands and places have begun to disappear beneath the waves, and before long the rising tides will take us all. We must do something, or a watery grave will be the fate of everything to grace the land. At first we knew not of the cause of The Everrain, but it has since become painfully apparent that the Old Gods of the ocean have awoken, and they are angry. For too long the people and creatures of the earth have prospered, and the Old Gods have arisen to usher in a new age of the Sea. We must do something, before all is lost to the rising tides. Assemble your crew, brave hero, and find a way to grant the Gods peace and return them to their slumber. Stop The Everrain… or drown in the flood of the new world." |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2022 | Grimlord Games | Adam Smith (I) | Aleksandra Bilic | Exploration | Theme: Cthulhu Mythos | Action Points | ||
Björn Hurri | Fantasy | Components: Dice with Icons | Cooperative Game | |||||
Sebastian Kowoll | Miniatures | Components: Polyhedral (not D6) dice | Dice Rolling | |||||
Thomas Lishman | Nautical | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Grid Movement | |||||
Henning Ludvigsen | Pirates | Players: Games with Solitaire Rules | Modular Board | |||||
Storytelling | ||||||||
Tile Placement | ||||||||
Variable Player Powers | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/252315
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to The Everrain? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Everrain. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Everrain. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 1.00 | 5.50 | 6.95 | 3.51 | 62 | ||
1 | 2017 | 0.95 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,765 | ||
2 | 2020 | 0.93 | 5.61 | 8.74 | 4.00 | 68 | ||
3 | 2014 | 0.93 | 6.83 | 8.04 | 3.39 | 2,302 | ||
4 | 2020 | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition) | 0.93 | 5.60 | 8.73 | 73 | ||
5 | 2017 | 0.93 | 5.87 | 7.24 | 3.44 | 626 | ||
6 | 2019 | 0.93 | 6.13 | 8.11 | 3.60 | 658 | ||
7 | 2018 | 0.92 | 5.97 | 8.16 | 2.59 | 445 | ||
8 | 2019 | 0.91 | 6.05 | 7.80 | 3.88 | 798 | ||
9 | 2015 | 0.91 | 5.82 | 7.32 | 3.22 | 515 | ||
10 | 2018 | 0.90 | 5.72 | 6.81 | 3.00 | 381 | ||
11 | 2017 | 0.90 | 6.50 | 6.94 | 2.99 | 6,374 | ||
12 | 2014 | 0.90 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,629 | ||
13 | 2016 | 0.90 | 5.61 | 7.32 | 3.50 | 147 | ||
14 | 2019 | 0.90 | 5.85 | 8.50 | 3.41 | 335 | ||
15 | 2015 | 0.89 | 5.71 | 7.78 | 3.33 | 254 | ||
16 | 2017 | 0.89 | 5.54 | 6.61 | 3.33 | 116 | ||
17 | 2019 | 0.89 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
18 | 2019 | 0.89 | 5.58 | 6.44 | 3.86 | 169 | ||
19 | 1995 | 0.89 | 6.55 | 7.49 | 2.69 | 2,449 | ||
20 | 2018 | 0.89 | 6.34 | 7.92 | 2.90 | 1,187 | ||
21 | 2018 | 0.88 | 5.92 | 8.33 | 3.56 | 522 | ||
22 | 2019 | 0.88 | 6.03 | 8.84 | 4.23 | 612 | ||
23 | 2018 | 0.88 | 6.09 | 7.66 | 2.93 | 793 | ||
24 | 2013 | 0.88 | 5.63 | 6.09 | 3.37 | 624 | ||
25 | 2017 | 0.87 | 5.60 | 6.56 | 2.25 | 262 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to The Everrain while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 5.50 | 1.00 | 5.50 | 6.95 | 3.51 | 62 | ||
1 | 2015 | 6.56 | 0.85 | 7.72 | 8.58 | 4.26 | 8,359 | ||
2 | 2016 | 6.42 | 0.83 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.67 | 29,837 | ||
3 | 2014 | 6.34 | 0.93 | 6.83 | 8.04 | 3.39 | 2,302 | ||
4 | 2014 | 6.29 | 0.90 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,629 | ||
5 | 2016 | 6.24 | 0.81 | 7.71 | 8.01 | 2.43 | 15,535 | ||
6 | 2019 | 6.20 | 0.89 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
7 | 2015 | 6.18 | 0.85 | 7.29 | 7.66 | 2.50 | 14,109 | ||
8 | 2017 | 6.16 | 0.95 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,765 | ||
9 | 2017 | 6.13 | 0.87 | 7.07 | 7.97 | 4.07 | 4,242 | ||
10 | 2019 | 6.06 | 0.81 | 7.48 | 8.14 | 2.40 | 6,585 | ||
11 | 2017 | 5.86 | 0.90 | 6.50 | 6.94 | 2.99 | 6,374 | ||
12 | 1995 | 5.82 | 0.89 | 6.55 | 7.49 | 2.69 | 2,449 | ||
13 | 2018 | 5.75 | 0.81 | 7.14 | 7.75 | 3.33 | 6,839 | ||
14 | 2018 | 5.74 | 0.83 | 6.96 | 7.74 | 2.86 | 3,978 | ||
15 | 2018 | 5.72 | 0.86 | 6.64 | 7.65 | 3.18 | 2,295 | ||
16 | 2020 | 5.69 | 0.86 | 6.63 | 8.04 | 3.45 | 1,960 | ||
17 | 2019 | 5.68 | 0.93 | 6.13 | 8.11 | 3.60 | 658 | ||
18 | 2017 | 5.67 | 0.86 | 6.56 | 7.19 | 2.54 | 4,389 | ||
19 | 2011 | 5.66 | 0.81 | 6.98 | 7.28 | 3.24 | 13,161 | ||
20 | 2011 | 5.66 | 0.84 | 6.73 | 7.23 | 2.58 | 5,939 | ||
21 | 2013 | 5.65 | 0.84 | 6.76 | 7.38 | 2.68 | 4,472 | ||
22 | 2018 | 5.63 | 0.89 | 6.34 | 7.92 | 2.90 | 1,187 | ||
23 | 2011 | 5.60 | 0.84 | 6.66 | 7.12 | 2.61 | 6,184 | ||
24 | 2010 | 5.58 | 0.84 | 6.65 | 6.98 | 2.51 | 8,791 | ||
25 | 2018 | 5.56 | 0.87 | 6.41 | 7.89 | 3.39 | 1,686 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.